A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
